The starting point for the development of the entire chain of key events of the last decade was the collapse of the neocolonial or neoliberal model of globalization. Globalization brought us fantastic things. One such thing is delivering anything from anywhere. Another is remote work and rest. So you can try out the real casino online anytime you get bored
The curtailment of the neoliberal globalization project was not due to the natural course of events. The United States did it deliberately in order to prevent the center of this project from moving to China. In fact, China was gradually moving towards.
Together with the globalization project, the liberal world order collapsed. That order existed for a quarter of a century after the collapse of the USSR. Since the middle of the last decade, the world has entered a zone of historical turbulence. For a new world order between key players, there is a struggle somewhere hidden, somewhere obvious.
In this struggle, two key questions will be resolved. Who will be the new world hegemon and what will be the new globalization project that will replace the bankrupt neoliberal?
With the world hegemony itself, everything is extremely difficult. This term refers to many heterogeneous phenomena. There are three main types of hegemony: economic, military, and cultural.
Today, they all belong to a single state which is the United States. But this situation did not last forever in general. It is more an exception than a rule. The kind of hegemony that the US right now is challenging China is economic hegemony. At the same time, it does not encroach on the military and culture. They will remain with the United States for a long time even if China becomes the world economic hegemon.
The latter fact in itself already causes great misunderstanding and gives rise to the most senseless questions. Such as how China plans to replace the United States if Chinese culture is basically not close to the Western world. No, it is not going to do this. It does not need it at least at this historical stage.
Throughout almost the entire world history, the main type of hegemony was the military. Any empire of antiquity, be it the Assyrian kingdom, the Qin empire, or Rome, spread its influence primarily by military means. The economy played an auxiliary role. It made it possible to create a combat-ready army.
However, we are well aware of cases when economically developed countries turned out to be powerless in the face of barbarian conquerors who did not have any developed economies. That is why economic superiority in itself has never guaranteed not only the spread of influence but even the preservation of independence. On the other hand, it is making developed states a desirable target for conquest.
Industrial Revolution And Capitalism
The situation was changed by the birth of capitalism and the industrial revolution that followed. There were two key changes.
Firstly, the economy has ceased to be a zero-sum game. If in ancient times it was much easier to seize someone’s once accumulated than to independently follow the same path for centuries, then in the modern world the costs of war can significantly exceed the hypothetical benefits. A war, if it is waged against at least an approximately equal opponent, nullifies the years of economic development. It throws the economy back. It is essential under the conditions of the economic model, sharpened for continuous growth. This does not mean that the conduct of war loses its meaning in general. Though, its expediency is significantly reduced.
Secondly, the emergence of industry made military power directly dependent on economic power. An economically underdeveloped state can no longer defeat a more developed state. Although it can, in some cases, defend its own.
Given peaceful development, the states were able to spread their influence based on economic achievements and not military power. Therefore, throughout the modern era, the importance of military hegemony decreased and the importance of economic hegemony increased. A visible manifestation of this trend was the peaceful victory of the United States in the Cold War.
In the next decade, we will see the denouement of the history of the American-Chinese confrontation. Assuming that a deus ex machina like general AI, a new more devastating pandemic, or an unexpected crisis in the Chinese political system does not intervene. Events will likely develop in one of two scenarios.
With a fairly high probability, the United States will try to start a war against China that will become the Third World War. Although the United States should be considered the favorite in this war. In fact, it is almost impossible to predict the development of events in this case. Moreover, the death of the entire planet in a nuclear apocalypse becomes a very real prospect.
If the war does not start, we are waiting for the pupation of the West. It is closing in on itself with a focus on maintaining a relatively high standard of living for citizens. Although only the United States will be able to truly maintain it in this case. In parallel with this, China will develop its own globalization project. It will implicitly include the whole world except for the West. Unlike the old neo-liberal project, this project will not have political and ideological dimensions. It will become purely economic. To participate in it, it will be enough not to pursue a policy of anti-Chinese protectionism. Approximately by the middle of the next decade, the non-Western contour of the world economy, united by the Chinese global project, will clearly begin to dominate the Western one. China will turn into the world economic hegemon. The era of Western dominance in the world will end.