March has finally arrived! It is time for the biggest dance to date! March Madness this year will most certainly not disappoint. Without a doubt, creating the bracket is the best part of every march. Every year, millions of people around the world attempt to create the perfect bracket.
The quest for perfection has yet to occur! While many will attempt to theorize it or flip a coin, it is nearly impossible to create the perfect bracket. One of my favorite March Madness stats is that the odds of making a perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if you just guess or flip a coin. 1 in 120.2 billion if you know a little something about basketball. Those odds should not discourage you but, in fact, encourage you!
Statistics can be very helpful when you look to create your bracket. It does not mean it will result in perfection but, it will most certainly give you an edge against others. Here are some of the best statistics and tools to get you one step closer to the improbable!
ESPN BPI Tool
The key to a good bracket is to try and find out who will win the tournament. In the long run, that is what will be able to get you the most amount of points. Many will tell you that a team that can shoot the highest percentage at the free-throw line will win. Some others will attempt to tell you or the AP’s top team.
There has been no statistical correlation regarding the champion in any of those regards. In the last 12 seasons, a top 4 team in the ESPN BPI rankings has won the tournament! It is an excellent tool for the champion.
Here are some of the results over the past couple of years. In 2021, Baylor won and was ranked number 2 in the BPI rankings. In 2013, Louisville won the tournament and was ranked as the number one overall team in their BPI rankings.
This will ultimately narrow your choice of title teams to 25%. Those four teams are Gonzaga, Houston, Kentucky, and Arizona!
If you are someone who loves advanced stats, KenPom is most certainly the best tool! It is an excellent way to properly examine a team’s success and how good their opponent is.
Their primary tool is adjusted efficiency. They subtract their offensive efficiency from their defensive efficiency. The efficiency is the number of points they get per 100 possessions. The same is measured for each of their opponents.
There are very few tools that are as good as the free KenPom site. One stat that most sites would not calculate is a team’s luck rating. This stat measures how many close games a team has played. Providence currently is leading in that category, so be wary of them on a potential first round upset!
Another site with excellent advanced stats is Barttorvik. They have these excellent team stats that are very helpful for those who are not used to using advanced stats. They also have their adjusted efficiency but they also have other stats such as their rebound percentage on offense and defense, turnover percent on offense and defense, along with two and three-point rate on both sides of the ball.
Bart Torvik Stats
Bart Torvik also has a feature where they look at all their games and measure the good wins and bad losses. Team stats are the most important and this site provides key stats.
Players will not win tournaments. Only teams can do that! We saw that last year when Oklahoma St. and Cade Cunningham lost against Oregon St. These are the key team stats that will allow you to create the best possible bracket.
Using basic stats will only harm you. Using these advanced stats are the true key to the best possible brackets. ESPN BPI, KenPom, and Barttorvik are some of the best sites for your March Madness advanced analytics. With these stats, you will most certainly only sleep in May. Let the madness begin and these stats will lead you to a wild march with a great bracket!