Horse racing, as fans who follow the sport closely know, has been historically difficult to predict. One thing is that the data is relatively limited. For example, if you’re going to bet on the upcoming Breeders’ Cup, you can always take a look at how horses this season are faring, but reviewing the Breeders’ Cup winners’ list by year is less instructive. It might bring you closer to the sport, but it won’t tell you who to bet on because those animals are likely already retired.
Since horse racing careers are short and the format is so volatile, what can’t happen in two minutes? It’s notoriously hard to get accurate predictions. And yet, we live in an era of Big Data and artificial intelligence programs that know how to use it quickly and effectively. Surely, there must be a great path forward to better race predictions, right?
The Significance of Data and How AI Uses It
The basic idea of data application is that you review something that has already happened and use it to make a relatively well-informed guess about what might happen in the future. Obviously, “guess” is the operative word. A really good prediction is ultimately imperfect, and even if, for example, you have a 99% likelihood of success, that is meaningless in situations where the unlikely does happen.
To that end, it’s important to remember that no matter how good AI or big data algorithms become, they are fundamentally making educated predictions. That said, AI models are able to identify patterns and information more quickly than humans can manually process.
AI in Action
It’s easy to forget, since you can’t seemingly turn on the television without watching an ad for some artificial intelligence app or another, that this technology is very young and hardly tested. That said, there already are examples of AI being integrated into race prediction formulas.
A prominent example is taking place at Inside Run at Flemington in Australia, where artificial intelligence is used to make predictions on the 400-meter race. This is supported using historical data concerning sectional timing as well as historic performances of the animals themselves. The results to date are mixed, but the AI’s ability to calculate quickly and in ways that are not possible through manual processes is promising.
Limitations
What can or can’t AI do? That’s the question on the mind of anyone taking a discerning look at this technology and how it might integrate into their own betting strategy. Artificial intelligence is not necessarily doing something new – probability has always been a factor in horse racing, and the truth is that no amount of technological innovation has erased the aspect of volatility that makes the sport so exciting.
AI models have shown considerable accuracy levels in the limited applications they’ve been used in. However, at the time of writing, they are still not able to outperform experienced handicappers. Like so many areas of AI integration, they improve upon what an entry-level human is capable of, but they don’t quite reach the standard of excellence in a general sense.
AI at Its Best
The most exciting application for artificial intelligence in racing happens behind the scenes. Trainers now have access to wearable sensor technology that gives them up-to-date insights on the health of the animals that they’re managing. In this way, artificial intelligence is making the game safer.
It’s able to track in real time tons of different data points concerning little things like changes in heart rate, or even in the way that the animal is walking. These early indications of illness and injury are so important, and for a long time, they were also basically inaccessible to management teams.
Through artificial intelligence technology, trainers can now catch problems before they become so big that they’re no longer manageable. This is very literally a life-saving use of artificial intelligence, the importance of which can’t be overstated.
The Future of AI and Horse Racing
The future of AI in anything, really, is a question that weighs on the minds of many of us. There was an initial panic, naturally, that artificial intelligence would take humans out of activities that have previously always needed them. There is certainly a little bit of that, and a continuing risk for more of it.
However, so far at least, the primary impact of artificial intelligence has not been to replace but to assist. In this capacity, we see it working now in artificial intelligence and horse racing. We need and will always need the expertise of people, whether it comes to making odds or raising horses, but artificial intelligence can serve as a force multiplier to the efforts of high-performing professionals who care about and take care of horses.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is solely the author’s opinion and not investment advice – it is provided for educational purposes only. By using this, you agree that the information does not constitute any investment or financial instructions. Do conduct your own research and reach out to financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
